NATO
headquarters shares with the caves of al-Qaeda the error of hubris. The jihadist
believes that it was their rag-tag mujahedeen that chased the Soviet Union out
of Afghanistan. Nothing in their world-view allows them to share the glory with
the United States, the Saudis and the Pakistanis, nor yet with the infestation
of economic termites inside the heart of the Soviet industrial base. In much
the same way, the NATO war planners believe that it was their seventy-eight day
bombing campaign that freed Kosovo from the clutches of Slobodan Milosevic's
forces. Nothing in the Brussels briefing books underlines the crucial step
taken by the Russians, when they withdrew their support of Milosevic and left
him, "looking at the stars," as he put it in his famous invocation of
the 1389 Battle of Kosovo. Neither the mujahedeen nor the NATO aircraft are
themselves capable of military victories that have a political impact. A
skirmish here and a bombing campaign there, but not the decisive blow that
overturns a political dispensation.
Outgoing
U. S. Defense Chief Robert Gates complains that the Europeans are not bearing
enough responsibility for the NATO campaign. France's Sarkozy replies that
Gates' retirement causes him to use "bitter words." It is only when
they are set to retire or do retire that sensible custodians of the
hierarchical world order speak the truth: Eisenhower warned the U. S. about the
military industrial complex in his farewell address of 1961, World Bank heads
Robert McNamara and James Wolfensohn snubbed their own certainties only when
the door of the Bank shut behind them. Gates indicates that the U. S. can no
longer use its military power to sustain its flagging hegemony. It has to turn
things over to partners. The European ship falters, as the Greek sinkhole
widens. It does not have the fortitude.
Gates'
criticism came as Congress sent the White House a confused verdict: no
authorization for the Libyan adventure, no allowance for more U. S. participation
in the NATO operation, and yet, no cut-off for the funds needed for the
operation. The U. S. drones can continue to work with other NATO warplanes to
cut a swath through the civilian districts of Tripoli. The fears of some in
Congress is that despite the stalemate in Libya, pressure mounts from the
humanitarian interventionist clique around Obama (Samantha Powers, Susan Rice)
and from Tel Aviv to stiffen the U. S. stand vis-à-vis Syria, and perhaps Iran.
"We don't have enough wars going on?" asked Dennis Kucinich
(Democrat, Ohio). "We have to wage war against another nation which did
not attack us?"
The
technical discussions about the War Powers Act are of little consequence. Few
U. S. presidents have honored the Act. More significant is the crack in the
consensus on the doctrine of perpetual war that governs the political economy
of the United States: taxpayer spending on warfare provides whatever long-term
government stimulus to the economy is allowed, whereas any money spent on the
social side of the ledger is sniffed at. Into this breach comes Wen Jiabao, the
Chinese premier, with "How China Plans to Reinforce the Global
Recovery" (Financial Times, June 23). Wen calls the bet. China is at
ready, but not yet to take on the political challenges alone. It will seek to
work through the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) formation.
A Beggar's
Banquet.
The twelve thousand
sorties and the two thousand five hundred targets have done little to stop the
Qaddafi regime from trying to assert itself. The Libyan army continues to push
against Misrata, the city of perpetual dread. The frontline between east and
west remains stagnant. The regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad is more likely to
collapse sooner than that of Qaddafi. Qaddafi's daughter, Aisha, filed papers
in Brussels to sue NATO for its killing of her daughter, Mastoura, her brother
and Qaddafi's two other grandchildren. After this April 30 attack, the Russian
Foreign Ministry pointed out that the "physical destruction of Qaddafi and
members of his family raise serious doubts." U. S. Navy Admiral Samuel
Locklear told Congressman Mike Turner in May that the NATO forces were trying
to kill Qaddafi (or in his more measured language, as reported via Turner,
"the scope of civil protection was being interpreted to permit the removal
of the chain of command of Qaddafi's military, which includes Qaddafi").
Qaddafi's resolve is hardened. With everything to lose, he is determined to
fight on.
Time is
Qaddafi's friend. As each day goes by, more and more of NATO's propaganda ploys
unravel. Donatella Rovera (Amnesty International) spent three months in Libya,
investigating the various claims. She now reports that many of them are figments of the
imagination, not the least of which is the one about Libyan troops given Viagra
to conduct the mass rape of women (this was repeated as fact by the
International Criminal Court's Luis Moreno-Ocampo). Other crimes are certainly in evidence, such
as the bombardment of civilian areas, but these now seem to have been conducted
by both the Libyan army and by the NATO warplanes. There is no moral high ground.
The NATO
war in Libya is far off from the UN Resolution 1973, and its philosophical
underpinning (the Responsibility to Protect Civilians). The International
Crisis Group's June 6 report (Making Sense of Libya) points out that no-one
seems concerned with civilians, as the refugee crisis explodes without care and
the civilian deaths increase. No one has created a humanitarian corridor out of
the two sides of the country, to allow war refugees to leave what is plainly a
civil war. It is a shameful situation.
The
stalemate affects the morale in Benghazi. Handouts from the Atlantic powers and
the Gulf States do not amount to much, leaving the Transitional Council on a
tight leash. The Council's vice chair, Abdel Hafiz Ghoga, sang a different tune
on June 25, expecting Qaddafi to make another political offer. "We want to
preserve life, so we want to end the war as soon as possible. We have always
left [Qaddafi] some room for an exit." The latter
is not the case, but the sentiment is what is important: there is no exit room
for Qaddafi, who is boxed in by the bombs and Ocampo's indictment. Idi
Amin's old abode on the top two floors of the Novotel Hotel in Jeddah (Saudi
Arabia) is no longer for rent, and Venezuela's Chavez has already declined to
make a new bed in the Miraflores Palace. But Ghoga indicates that even the
Benghazi leadership, despite its close ties to Paris and Langley, know that
Libya is being presented with a beggar's banquet of unsavory things.
Even the
International Crisis Group has come to the view that "a political
breakthrough is by far the best way out of the costly situation created by the
military impasse." Both sides must agree to an immediate ceasefire, to be
monitored by on-the-ground UN peacekeepers. Negotiations cannot take place
directly between Benghazi and Tripoli, but must be run through a third party.
No one thinks this third party can be from the Atlantic powers. They have no
credibility on both sides. According to the Crisis Group, "A joint
political initiative by the Arab League and the African Union -- the former
viewed more favorably by the opposition, the latter preferred by the regime --
is one possibility to lead to such an agreement." There is a basis for
this dialogue, built up by the visits of the African Union's Libya panel to
Tripoli and Benghazi and by the work of the UN Special Envoy to Libya, the
Jordanian politician Abdul Ilah Khatib (who once famously said of the Atlantic
powers, "Only when there is a crisis do they realize that they have to do
something"). All this is of no consequence, the Crisis Group reports
without "the leadership of the revolt and NATO rethinking their current
stance."
The
African Union will meet in Equatorial Guinea on June 30. The AU Libya panel's
chair, Mauritania's President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz has already gone on
record that Qaddafi "can no longer lead Libya." But the AU, unlike
NATO and Benghazi, will not make Qaddafi's departure a precondition for negotiation.
That is a recipe for no dialogue at all, as the Crisis Group recognizes. It is
likely that the negotiations will result in Qaddafi's removal from power, but
that is a possible outcome of the discussion between the two sides. A
preparatory meeting of the AU panel on June 26 did not suggest anything new.
That is not the point. They have a roadmap, but require NATO to stand-down.
Will NATO
and the Atlantic powers allow the AU and the BRICS countries to take charge of
the dynamic? The Cold War ended at the same time as the Third World project ran
out of steam. During the 1990s, the countries of
Africa, Asia and Latin America tried to develop a new set of institutions to
push against the economic and political domination of the Atlantic powers. The
Non-Aligned Movement formed the Group of Fifteen (G15), which narrowed into the
IBSA (India-Brazil-South Africa) bloc, and then finally to the BRICS. They have made their claim to
planetary governance, with a
platform that is far more multipolar and polycentric than that of the Atlantic
powers. The African Union would act as more of an agent of the BRICS than of
Washington and Paris. Libya is a test case for the transfer of power from the
moribund G7 to the more robust BRICS formation. But the Atlantic powers are not
going to allow this, and that is the undoing of Libya.
Vijay
Prashad is the
George and Martha Kellner Chair of South Asian History and Director of
International Studies at Trinity College, Hartford, CT His most recent book, The Darker Nations: A People's History of the Third World,
won the Muzaffar Ahmad Book Prize for 2009. The Swedish and French editions are
just out. He can be reached at: vijay.prashad@trincoll.edu